Mid-January 2027 Luxury Market Update: Records, Tight Inventory, and What to Watch

If you are buying or selling at the $750,000-plus level in Sarasota County, the story of the last year has been consistent: the luxury segment is active, inventory is tight, and the top of the market keeps making news. In the most recent county reports from the REALTOR Association of Sarasota and Manatee, 121 single-family homes sold above $1 million in a single month, the county recorded its most expensive home sale of 2026 at $26 million on Siesta Key, and months of supply tightened to around 3.7. Here is what the data says as we settle into 2027, and what I am watching for my buyers and sellers.

The Headline Numbers

The most recent full report, covering July sales, showed Sarasota County's median single-family sale price at $493,500, up 5.0% year over year, with the average price near $764,300, up 11.6%. Closed sales totaled 744, up 2.9%. More recent market data through September shows the median easing to about $470,000 while sellers still received roughly 94.7% of their original list price on average. The takeaway is not a falling market. It is a market where well-priced homes continue to sell close to asking while inventory stays lean.

The Luxury Segment Is the Real Story

For buyers and sellers above $1 million, the numbers are striking. In July, 121 single-family homes sold at $1 million or more, up 39.1% from the same month a year earlier. That included 37 sales between $1 million and $1.25 million, 13 between $3 million and $5 million, four between $5 million and $10 million, and three above $10 million. The $1.25 million to $1.49 million band rose 47.1%, and the $2 million to $2.99 million band rose 50%. Luxury condos were even stronger: 41 condos and townhomes sold above $1 million in July, up 241.7% from 12 a year earlier. This is not a quiet corner of the market, it is the most active one.

The record books agree. In September, a Siesta Key waterfront estate at 3990 Higel Avenue sold for $26 million in cash, the most expensive Sarasota County sale of 2026 to date. Deals like that tell you where the demand sits at the very top, and they ripple down into the $1 million to $3 million range where most of my clients operate.

Inventory Is Still Tight

Supply is the other side of this market. Sarasota County ended July with about 23.4% fewer single-family homes on the market than a year earlier, and months of supply fell to roughly 3.9, down from 5.6. Through September, months of supply sat at about 3.7, down nearly 29% year over year. Luxury inventory specifically has tightened by roughly 26%. For sellers, that means less competition and serious, qualified buyers. For buyers, it means that when the right home comes on the market, the decision window is real. A pre-approval, a clear picture of insurance and property tax costs, and a team that moves quickly all matter more than ever.

What I Am Watching in 2027

Three things stand out for the year ahead. First, new construction in Wellen Park and Palmer Ranch continues to add supply at the luxury level, which gives buyers options and keeps pricing honest. Second, insurance and property tax costs remain the biggest line items in any cost-of-ownership conversation, and I am watching how those shape buyer budgets. Third, relocation demand from out of state shows no sign of slowing, especially from the Northeast and Midwest, and it keeps feeding the upper end of the market.

What This Means for You

If you are selling at the $750,000-plus level, the conditions favor you: tight inventory, strong demand, and buyers who are ready to act. But pricing discipline still matters, because well-priced homes sell quickly while overpriced ones sit. If you are buying, the advice is to arrive pre-approved, understand your full cost of ownership, and be ready to move when the right home appears. In a market this tight, preparation is the single biggest advantage you can give yourself.

Let's Talk About Your Specific Situation

Every street and every price point tells a slightly different story, and the county numbers only take you so far. I would love to give you a neighborhood-specific read on the data, whether you are thinking about listing or just starting your search. Send me a note, and I will help you make sense of what the market means for the home you want to buy or sell this year.