Early March 2027 Luxury Market Update: Tight Inventory, Record High-End Sales

The latest quarterly report from the Realtor Association of Sarasota and Manatee, covering July through September 2026, paints a clear picture: prices are holding near record levels, high-end sales are surging, and inventory keeps shrinking. For $750K+ buyers and sellers entering the spring season, here is what the numbers mean and how I am advising clients this March.

The Headline Numbers

Sarasota County's median single-family price came in at $485,000 in the third quarter, up 3.7% year over year, with 2,071 single-family homes sold, up 3%. The average single-family sale price jumped 20.2% to $807,627, which tells you where the action is: the upper end of the market is moving faster than the middle. Condos and townhomes posted a median of $324,380, and their sales surged 26.8% year over year, a striking shift as buyers embrace lock-and-leave living.

The Luxury Story: Nine Sales Above $10 Million

The most eye-catching number is at the very top. In the third quarter, nine single-family homes sold for $10 million or more, up from one a year earlier, an increase of 800%. Eleven more sold between $5 million and $10 million, compared with four a year prior. The story is even bigger in condos: ten sold above $10 million in the quarter versus zero a year earlier, and fifteen sold between $5 million and $10 million versus one. Regionwide, 5,699 homes closed in the quarter, up 8% year over year. For waterfront sellers, this is the strongest evidence yet that the luxury segment is not just steady, it is accelerating.

Inventory Is Tight and Getting Tighter

Single-family inventory sits at 3.7 months of supply, down 28.8% year over year, with active listings down 20.8% to about 2,619 homes. Condos and townhomes stand at 5.2 months of supply, down 25.7%. Anything under six months is considered a seller's market, and the trend has been running in one direction all year. What this means practically is that well-priced homes in the $750K to $1.5M range are drawing qualified buyers quickly, and the best homes are rarely sitting long enough for a second look.

What This Means for Buyers

For buyers, tight inventory rewards preparation. Get pre-approved before you shop, be ready to move on a home that fits, and lean on a listing history that tells you what a property is really worth before you write an offer. In this market, the homes that close near asking are the ones priced honestly from day one. I work with my buyers to price their expectations against current, not outdated, comparables, and to act decisively when the right home appears.

What This Means for Sellers

For sellers, the fundamentals are in your favor, but the strategy still matters. The luxury segment is surging, yet buyers remain selective: they will pay for waterfront, condition, and the right location, and they will pass on overpriced homes that lack all three. My approach is to price to the data, stage to the segment, and market to the buyers who can actually afford your home, which is where my 24 years of negotiating experience comes in.

Let's Talk About Your Move

Whether you are buying or selling in the $750K+ segment this spring, I would love to sit down and map out a strategy built on the latest numbers. Tell me about your timeline and goals, and I will show you what the current market means for your specific situation. Thanks so much, and warmly, Julie.